FOREIGN TRADE INDICATORS OF FISH IN THE ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPT

FOREIGN TRADE INDICATORS OF FISH IN THE ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPT

Tharwat Ismail Ali Dawood

Central Lab. For Aquaculture Research .Economic D. Agricultural Research Center. Giza.

Abstract

Research aims to study and analyze some of the foreign trade of the fish axes through the evolution of the quantity and value of imports and exports of fish during the period (1994- 2013) and the relative importance of imports from available for consumption. As well as factors affecting the ratio of the foreign trade. Obian coverage by exports for imports.the problems and determinants of export of fish.

Where the average annual amount of fish imports about 197.1 thousand tons estimated at 1204.9 million pounds, and the trend estimate timetable year, equivalent to the quantity of fish Egyptian imports during the period (1994-2013) and proved significant increase in the amount of imports increased by an annual rate of 4350 tons and by change an annual increase of 2.21%. The coefficient of determination indicates that 23.1% of the changes in the quantity of imports but due to the element of time,

Also proved significant increase in the value of imports increased by an annual rate of 0.147 million pounds. by change an annual increase of 14.7%. The coefficient of determination indicates that 88.4% of the changes in the value of imports due to the element of time and in accordance with the exponential function.

By studying the relative importance of imports of fish showing volatility relative importance of fish available for consumption imports reached an annual average of the relative importance of imports of fish available for consumption is about 19.9%. Where the percentage of imports of up to about 30% of the available for consumption in both 1994.1996 while this percentage dropped in both 2008.2009 amounted to about 11% and then rebounded again in 2012 to reach about 20%. Then it stood at 14% in 2013. This confirms an increased reliance on the outside in the management of the required quantities for domestic consumption of fish from foreign countries and only about 7% of the Arab countries.

Exports reached a maximum in 2013 and was estimated at 20.45 thousand tons valued at about 161.9 million pounds, an increase of 1130.6% to the amount of exports, 1232.1% of the value of exports. And that for exports in 1994 as the base year (1994 = 100), which estimated the exports by about 1.66 tons. Worth estimated at 12.155 million pounds, while exports amounted to the lowest in 1998 and estimated at 524 tons, valued at about 2,980 million pounds, 68.5% accounted for the lack of quantity of exports, and the lack of rate of 75.5% of the value of exports. And that for exports in 1994 as the base year (1994 = 100).

Increasing the amount of exports as shown in the last five years of the study (2009.2013) an average of around 12.8 thousand tons. Valued at about 105.4 million pounds. Reflecting the beginning of opening up this sector to regional trade and but still needs some solutions to the problems facing this sector.

Time trend and appreciated equation proved significantly increasing the amount of fish exports increased by an annual rate of 0.150 thousand tons, with an annual change of 15%. The coefficient of determination indicates that 76.4% of the changes in the quantity of fish exports due to the element of time and in accordance with the exponential function.

As proven moral value of exports increased by an annual rate of 0.17 million pounds and an annual rate of change of 17%. The coefficient of determination indicates that 67.8% of the changes in the quantity of exports due to the element of time and in Accordance with the exponential function. And appreciated the relationship regression to know the factors affecting the foreign trade of the fish showing of the form that there is an inverse relationship between the amount of fish imports and import prices, which means that the increase in import prices for fish by unity leads to the low quantity of imports amounted to 7470.00 thousand tons, it turns out that there is a relationship positive statistically significant between the amount of imports of fish available for consumption.

Which means that an increase in available for consumption of fish by the unit leads to an increase in imports is estimated at 0.177 thousand tons. The coefficient of determination indicates that 57.7% of the changes in the quantity of imports of fish due to the former independent factors explained.

As it turns out to estimate the regression relationship logarithmic that there is a direct correlation moral statistically between the amount of exports of fish and prices of exports, domestic production,. Which means that the increase in export prices and domestic production of fish 1% leads to increase the amount of exports by about 71% 0.168%, respectively. And the independent variables are responsible for 67% of the changes in the form of a variable quantity of fish exports.

The study found that the average price per ton
exports does not cover tons of imports during the last period of the study. And trying to judge this rate has been moderate estimate every five years of the period in question was shown that the medium was about 3.1 during the period (1994-1998) Any tonnes of exports that was covered with 3.1 tons of fish imports during that period average. This rate has fallen to about 2.02 in the average period (1999-2003) and then declined, reaching about 1.19 Average during the period (2004-2008), however, it dropped sharply, reaching about 0.616 through the average (2009-2013) and this figure It means that the value of exports equivalent tonnes which covers the purchase of 0.616 tons of imports fishes which became tonnes of fish exports value does not cover the purchase of tons of fish imports where only covers about 61.6% of the value per ton of imported fish.

As for the overall coverage rate it is clear that Egypt imported fish state but it is exported limited quantities of the species contributes to yield them in the management of part of the value of imports of fish through the value of its exports. Where this rate reached to about 4.94% in 1994, then declined seriously in 2004, reaching about 0.74%. And then rose until it reached to about 5.43 that is, it was not stable during the study period.

As study problems and determinants of export of fish through the work of discussion groups to number 12 source of fish found in which the presence of internal problems and external must be avoided and resolved to get fish Egyptian product to the world markets through amending some Laws and legislation with the abolition of customs duties, at least among the Arab products to encourage trade exchange inter-Arab between countries with surplus production and other related disability.